2016 Presidential Election Prediction Part 3 (Sep 11 – 57 days to go)



Please read the description below!
Thank you for watching my second election prediction video, i will upload these prediction videos weekly, note that i am doing a so called “NOW CAST” – as seen on
Now Cast means i predict what would happen if the election were held TODAY and if nothing happened that would change voter’s minds – obviously i don’t know what’s going to happen so NO ONE can predict the outcome of the election on November 8 at this point. NOTE that this is just MY point of view – and polls as well as numerous pollsters like fivethirtyeight’s NOW-CAST agree with me.
I am NOT taking a side, i am not a Clinton Fanboy or a Trump Fanboy. If Trump takes the lead in the polls and recovers from the horrible media attention he’s been getting then things can change and he might win.

Thanks for watching my prediction video, please feel free to check out my website at 270needed.com as well as subscribe to my channel to be notified about future uploads.

Thank you

22 Comments

  1. I find your prediction to be inaccurate I have him winning Florida Iowa Nevada and Ohio and north Carolina and possibly Michigan and Wisconsin depending on how he does at the debate

  2. Interesting analysis, but I'd encourage you not to merely preserve the two party system by portraying as a two candidate race- Show how Johnson performs, give him a way into the debate and the change people are crying out for just might happen!

  3. You need to update your map, Trump is polling ahead in Ohio, in Maine CD2, in Florida and Nevada. And I would put Iowa as leaning Republican also; I would also make Nebraska leaning Republican statewide and I would put Michigan and Wisconsin as toss ups.

  4. You didn't show any polling data on Texas or Utah.  I've heard rumblings that Trump is in danger of losing both of these states-so they may be less certain to go Trump's way than you represented.

  5. How can your prediction be accurate when many polls are oversampling Democrats by 100-150 in a sample of 500-750?

    Gallup's random sampling shows party affiliation in the U.S. is at 27% Republican vs 31% Democrats.

    Reference:
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

    And yet, many of the polls used in RCP average include 10-25% more Democrats than Republicans. I always look for the source data on polls and I have seen this trend continue with more and more oversampling of Democrats.

    Of course, the alt right is abuzz with the same notion. And they happen to be telling the truth.

    Reference:
    http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/07/29/reuters-ipsos-poll-change-methodology/

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/06/new-reuters-poll-extremely-skewed-reality-trump/

    http://truthfeed.com/busted-humiliated-msnbc-was-forced-to-correct-a-poll-they-skewed-to-help-hillary/21917/

    And so, I ask how can you predict anything when you source is the RCP average; which consists of many polls that over sample Democrats?

  6. Thanks for watching guys! I am thinking about doing a community video, inviting all of you to join me on Skype for a discussion of the current state of the race. I am looking forward to having a discussion / debate with Trump AND Clinton supporters, so if you're interested please tell me so you can be part of the discussion which will be uploaded to this YouTube channel.

    Thanks guys!

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