Election 2016: A Look at the Polls 9/30/2016



My prediction of which states would go red if Trump won the debates is lining up. Back in July, my “predictions” were predicated on the idea that Trump would win the majority of the debates. If he does, that original electoral map will hold true.

This video, however, is just a look at all the polls. Things are looking even, though I would give Trump a slight edge. Early voter registration, general trends, and future debates bode well for the Don.

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9 Comments

  1. 538 differs from RCP because RCP doesn't actually include as many polls as 538, and 538 projects swings in national polls filtering down to state polls (which lag behind, because they are always conducted later). So it is a prediction based on that. It would actually be better to use the polls on 538s database, because they update them earlier and more often than RCP. There are post debate polls in CO, FL, NC, NH and PA that you did not discuss in this video.

    538s approach makes a lot of sense, because as you note, if Trump is winning the national polls by several points, he will win the states he needs. Similarly, if Clinton is winning by several points, then she will. And right now, all the national polls are showing Clinton with a growing lead. It is 3 on RCP, larger if you look at other sources that include more polls. Even polls that don't have Clinton ahead by much nationally showed a massive swing post debate, like the Fox News and Rasmussen polls. The trend line is clear.

    Nate Silver tweeted this today:

    7 fully post-debate national polls show Clinton +4.3, on average. State polls pretty consistent with that too. With numbers like that, no way Trump wins an election held today.

    Nevada

    We can't consider the Nevada poll an outlier until we actually have more post-debate polls. In fact, according to Nate Silver, that Nevada poll is actually exactly where one would expect Clinton to be given her growing national lead and the demographics of the state. We do need more data, but of course the biggest factor distinguishing that Nevada poll from others is the fact it is the only one of them post debate. I do respect the idea of not just fixating on the latest poll, but it is also going too far to just call it an outlier. Really, that term makes no sense until we see more post debate polls. I'd say that six point lead is more relevant than anything pre-debate. Perhaps Clinton only really leads by 2 or 3 in Nevada, ok, I can buy that. But the truth is going to be closer to the new poll than the old polls, given the way all the other state polls are trending at the moment.

    Colorado

    There has in fact been a new poll here, not on RCP. PPP has her up 6. Not sure why PPP isn't in the RCP database. It has PPP's results in other states. Seems to be an omission. Yes, PPP polling is often employed by democrats and has a snarky pro-democrat twitter feed, but it was also the most accurate pollster in 2012. In many cases it has actually been Trump leaning this cycle in terms of results vs. the average. With this new poll from PPP, there is no way can you call it for Trump post debate, or even a toss up. Colorado is looking better in Clinton than you think.

    PA

    Same again, there has been a post-debate poll here by PPP with Clinton up 6, not in the RCP database. Pennsylvania is going to go to Clinton in November. Look at all the blue for PA in this list, and tell me you think Trump is going to win PA?

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

    Iowa

    Nothing post debate, but here I agree it should be solid red, even after the debate. I'm calling this one now: Trump wins Iowa in November.

    Florida

    Clinton leading in most recent polls, and growing that lead in post-debate polls, not a dead heat anymore. Close, but leans Clinton right now. My understanding is that Republicans is not doing as well in the early absentee requests for voting in Florida as Romney, which is what you are really talking about, because no actual votes have been tallied for anything yet. No way does it lean red at the moment. No way. Trump has plenty to worry about in Florida.

    Again, check out all the recent polls for Clinton ahead here:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/

    North Carolina

    PPP has Clinton with a +2 lead here after debate, again, for some reason not in the RCP database, up from their last poll which had Trump leading, so there has been a swing here too. It is too close to call, however. Most ominously, however, democrat requests for early ballots are much higher than 2012, and republican requests for early ballots are much lower than 2012. Given how Obama won it in 2008, and Romney only won it by a few points in 2012, I'd say Clinton is looking very good going forward in North Carolina. She is certainly going to do better than Obama did in 2012. She is polling better than he did there, there are lots of white college educated voters switching from Republican to Democrat leaning, and the early ballot requests are much better for her campaign than Obamas. I'm now feeling pretty good about a Clinton win here.

    Ohio

    Has been looking good for Trump, but zero post debate polls.

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