Hillary Clinton has reached a record high level of support with millennials, but it is not millennial women who are powering her surge.
Here are the overall numbers from the USA Today/Rock The Vote poll:
Clinton’s level of support with millennials is higher than President Obama’s records set in 2008 (66%) and 2012 (67%). Donald Trump is on pace to set a record for least amount of millennial support in an election. Trump’s twenty percent support is ten points lower than the record low set by Bob Dole in 1996 and tied by Mitt Romney in 2012. John McCain barely missed the record low in 2008 by getting 31% of the millennial vote.
The conventional wisdom is that millennial women are supporting Clinton, but, according to this poll, that isn’t the case. Hillary Clinton is getting record levels of support from millennial men. Sixty-five percent of millennial men support Clinton. Her support with millennial men is 11 points than President Obama’s support with the same demographic in 2012. Millennial women are supporting Clinton by a margin of 47%-18%, but an equal 18% are also supporting Gary Johnson or Jill Stein.
As with all voters, Hillary Clinton’s challenge will be to get those who are supporting her out to the polls. In this area, she has the huge advantage of a superior ground organization that has been building and working for years to get out the vote. Trump and the Republicans are underresourced, out organized, and getting clobbered on the ground.
The name Bob Dole and the year 1996 are coming up with more frequency when the 2016 data gets compared to previous elections. Bill Clinton got 53% of the 18-29 vote when he routed Bob Dole twenty years ago. Hillary Clinton is on pace to do even better.
The previous two debates helped the Democratic nominee with younger voters, so look for her to try to close the deal with millennials during Wednesday night’s third and final presidential debate.
The bottom line is that Hillary Clinton doesn’t have a millennial problem.