In the 2016 US Presidential election, Hillary Clinton now leads Donald Trump by about 6%, which is a fairly strong lead considering most presidents tend to be elected with a lead of less than 5%. But let’s take a look at some of the numbers behind the numbers.
Favourability is one of the more interesting factors in this election cycle. In favorability polls, respondents are asked about whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of a given candidate. In other words: do you like them or not?
Donald Trump’s favourability is terrible. 39 favourable to 59.8 unfavourable. He’s 20.8% more unfavourable than favourable. People hate this guy.
Hillary Clinton does a bit better, but it’s still not great. 42.4% favourable to 55.8 unfavourable. So she’s 13.4% more unfavourable. And her unfavourability seems to be on the rise.
Now one of these two people will almost certainly be the next president of the united states, which means that the US is about to have a very unpopular president either way.
But some in the mainstream media don’t seem to think this is a problem. In an article for the Washington Post, Alan Abramowitz and John Sides acknowledge the unusually high unfavourables but conclude that it’s just people being passionate about their own candidate, and cherry pick data from a single poll to support their argument.
So let’s talk about this. Are the high unfavourable a problem or not? Why do people hate the candidates so much? And to Abramowitz and Sides, I really must ask:
What’s Wrong With You?