US election 2016 polls and odds tracker: latest results forecast in race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump to be President
Ashley Kirk, video by charlotte krol
The clash between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is dominating America as the race to replace Barack Obama in the White House reaches into its last month.
Until election day on 8 November, follow our poll tracker to keep on track on with who’s top. Based on polling data from RealClearPolitics, we have state by state predictions and an estimate for the overall electoral college vote.
The presidential campaign has seen Trump, who was once a Republican outsider, close the gap on his Democrat rival.
In the Telegraph’s poll of polls, which takes an average of the last five polls published on RealClearPolitics, he first pulled ahead of Hillary Clinton on 19 May 2016.
Clinton once held a double-digit lead over Trump, but this has been eroded by the appeal of Trump. She also suffered a dip in the polls after facing pressure over her health as she fainted in public after suffering from pneumonia.
She has still retained, however, a lead over Trump for most of the campaign, with the Republican nominee prone to making gaffes and alienating key demographic groups in America with his comments.
US presidential poll tracker.
A word of caution, however: polling so far away from the election is unlikely to be reflective of the final score. A lot can change between now and election day.
The New York Times has worked out that, 40 days before previous elections, a simple polling average has differed from the final result by about four percentage points. So, with the polls being so close, anything could happen.
How does the presidential election work?
Each of the 50 states, as well as the District of Columbia, has a certain amount of electoral college votes to award a candidate, based on the number of members of Congress it has. This is roughly in line with each area’s population. Except for Maine and Nebraska, the votes are given on a winner-takes-all basis.
This system matters, as the popular vote is less important than the electoral college vote. If Clinton’s campaign is buoyed by big Democratic states such as New York, New Jersey, Illinois and California, these populous states could lead her to victory with their large number of electoral college votes.
For example, in 2008, Barack Obama won 53 per cent of the vote – but this led to 68 per cent of the electoral college vote. Such highly populated states played a large role when they backed the current president.
The states to watch
Swing states – states that regularly switch between Democrat and Republican between elections – are also important.
States like Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia have the power to swing the election. So far, neither Trump nor Clinton has a significant lead in these crucial states.
Why are the US election polls so close?
Both candidates suffer from unpopularity both within their own parties and among the public at large.
Some big Republicans figures have refused to endorse Trump, while YouGov polling has shown that just over half of Bernie Sanders’ supporters would back Clinton.
Recent New York Times and CBS News polling has shown that both candidates’ popularity is limited by the public’s lack of trust with both candidates.
Just 33 per cent of Americas think Clinton is honest and trustworthy, compared to 35 per cent thinking the same of Trump. 57 per cent of people say they don’t share Clinton’s values, while the number is similarly high for Trump, at 62 per cent.
More people think Clinton has the right kind of temperament and personality to be a good president, while Trump has the advantage when people pick the candidate who they think could bring about “real change” in Washington.
Still, Clinton holds a big demographic advantage over Trump. A Washington Post poll indicated that 69 per cent of non-whites and 52 per cent women favour Clinton, while 57 per cent of whites and men support the Republican.
What are the odds on the American presidential election?
It has long been said of predicting sporting outcomes that the bookies don’t get it far wrong, working out probabilities with complicated mathematics based on the choices of their thousands of paying punters.
After last year’s surprise General Election result, many political followers have lost faith in pollsters and prefer to look at the odds to predict the future.
Hillary Clinton has been odds-on favourite since the end of February, but Trump has steadily caught her up as his Republican rivals dropped out. Last July he was a 25/1 shot while Hillary was already at evens.
Coral’s latest odds latest odds for the next US president are:
Hillary Clinton: 4/11
Donald Trump: 2/1
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